Monday, November 28, 2005

More on Real Estate

I was waiting for my rental car at the counter this afternoon when I overheard one of the clerks talking to another about how she had bought a 6 bedroom / 4.5 bath house for $600,000 because she could turn around and sell it for $800,000.

The end (of the real estate boom) is near!

When people start thinking that they can make a guaranteed 33% profit (I don't know what timeframe she was thinking about, but I'm sure it was as ridiculously short as the gain was ridiculously large), it is time for sensible investors to stay clear of real estate. This is definitely starting to sound too much like the irrational exhuberance regarding stocks in 1999-2000 for my comfort.

3 comments:

UnknownVariable said...

The problem is, that everyone has been saying the end of real estate boom is near for 3 or so years from now. Eventually the predictors of doom will be proven right.

Note that the real-estate bubble will not burst a-la the dot com stock bubble. I think prices will only stagnate or wane slowly over the years...*


*... unless you live in Michigan, but that's a different story entirely.

ALD said...

Want to rethink this prediction in light of recent events?

ALD said...

Between the 2008 Housing Bill and the takeover of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, I (who did NOT take advantage of the opportunity to make a "guaranteed" 33% profit) must now pay for part of this particular idiot's loss, as well as every other idiot who caused this bubble.

Not to mention the hit to my earning potential because of the drag that the bubble popping has put on the overall economy.

Thanks a lot, idiots. Thanks a lot, government.

I am voting Libertarian in November.