Wednesday, February 01, 2006

Response to Comment

The problem is, that everyone has been saying the end of real estate boom is near for 3 or so years from now. Eventually the predictors of doom will be proven right.

Yes, but there's one additional thing to consider. In 1996 the "predictors of doom" were saying that the market was overvalued and prices would crash. They were not proven correct until 2000, but when the market did hit bottom in 2002 prices were in fact lower than in 1996. So it's not just a matter of time, but an actual price consideration.

Note that the real-estate bubble will not burst a-la the dot com stock bubble.

I agree it will never be as bad as the dot com stock bubble. The reason for the difference is clear - unlike stocks, homes are physical assets.

I think prices will only stagnate or wane slowly over the years...

Here I disagree. Current prices are sustainable only because of very low interest rates and absurdly generous financing options. I see prices dropping as much as 20% in a relatively short period.

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