Monday, March 03, 2008

Dumbest Thing I've Heard in a while

I just heard a CNBC analyst on TV asking, "The question is when are we going to see some of the money going into commodities start moving back into equities. When is that appetite for risk going to return?" That is idiotic. The risk isn't in equities (they obviously aren't going to skyrocket, but they aren't going to plummet a la 2000-2 either). The risk is in commodoties, which are being built up to be the next bubble. It's ridiculous...

  • Gold +43% in six months
  • Oil +46% in six months
  • Wheat +100% in just under a year
  • Corn, Cattle, hell even soybeans, are going through the roof

Now a good deal of these increases are that the prices are quoted in dollars on world markets, and the dollar is down quite a bit (which has no effect on non-US demand) so a lot of this is explained by the decline of the dollar as opposed to real price increases, but it doesn't come near (anywhere near) explaining all of these increases. So what's going on here?

We've got media headlines like "World recession blamed for basic commodity price hikes." Wait a minute - aren't prices supposed to DROP in a recession?

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