Wednesday, February 02, 2005

Vacation v The Economy

The next time you get one of those emails (or see one of those TV commercials) pontificating on how American workers are getting cheated and abused because European workers get so much more vacation than American workers...

Average Vacation Days
France 37 days
Germany 35 days
U.S. 13 days

... I urge you to remember the other side of the coin ...

Unemployment Rate (January 2005)
Germany 10.0%
France 9.7%
U.S. 5.4%

Real GDP Growth (2005 Prediction)
Germany 1.0% [Edited based on more recent information]
France 1.7%
U.S. 3.5%

This thought was inspired by this Bloomberg article (condensed below).

German unemployment jumped to the highest level since World War II as new rules added welfare recipients to the jobless register. The number of people out of work in January rose by 227,000 to 4.71 million in seasonally adjusted terms, including 230,000 new jobless claimants. The adjusted unemployment rate rose to 11.4%, a seven-year high, while the unadjusted jobless total passed 5 million for the first time since the war. Schroeder's government had cut jobless benefits and forced claimants to take low-paid jobs in an attempt to get more people into work in Europe's largest economy.

Economy and Labor Minister Wolfgang Clement said he expects a further rise in unemployment in February, though experience from other countries suggests the new policies may eventually cut the jobless total by as much as 20%. Even before the labor-market changes, German unemployment had risen for 11 straight months, as companies moved jobs to countries with lower labor costs and stagnant domestic demand deterred hiring. In December, Germany had the second highest unemployment rate after Spain among the 12 countries that share the euro, at 10% on a comparable basis.

Disregarding the effects of the new labor law, seasonally adjusted unemployment was "stable," Labor Agency Vice-President Heinrich Alt said. The adjusted unemployment rate is higher than it has been since March 1998, when it was 11.5%. The record rate was set in October 1997 at 11.8%. "Unemployment has grown steadily over the last three decades and then reunification came on top of that," said Bert Ruerup, the head of Schroeder's council of economic advisers. The government last week pared its forecast for economic growth in 2005 to 1.6% from 1.7%. [New predictions indicate that even this number is overly optimistic. March estimates indicate growth could be as small as 1%. By contrast U.S. growth is predicted to be 3.5% in 2005. - ALD] Germany is losing 1,200 full-time jobs a day, Juergen Thumann, head of the BDI industry federation, said last week. Unemployment won't decline unless labor costs are cut, he said.

[Thanks to DVD for emailing the Bloomberg article to me.]
[Edited on 3/1/2005 based on more recent information.]

3 comments:

UnknownVariable said...

Woah. To think GDP growth of Germany 1.6% and France 1.7% is much higher than I thought! I was under the impression that the GDP growth rate of those two nations was at a near stagnant level.

Either way, it will be difficult for the French and Germans to lead the "EU economic powerhouse" with a seemingly weak economy.

ALD said...

The GDP increase was at near-zero levels until 2003. They experienced some modest growth in 2004. What I consider utterly fascinating is that the 1.6-1.7 percent range predicted for 2005 would be considered a relatively good result.

UnknownVariable said...

It was announced that the US unemployment rate dipped to 5.2 % last month. Woot!